GREEN BAY (NBC 26) — Schools across Northeast Wisconsin planned for growth for decades. Now, many districts are planning for the opposite.
In Green Bay, some classrooms are getting quieter.
Green Bay Area Public Schools has lost more than 1,200 students in the past three years, and leaders say the decline is continuing.
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“Similar to almost every other district in the state and nationwide, we are seeing a decline in enrollment and the decline continues,” said GBAPS Superintendent Vicki Bayer.
District leaders say fewer students mean difficult choices now and even tougher decisions ahead.
“We have closed seven schools, and we have been consistently decreasing our staffing at the same rate of enrollment decline,” Bayer said.
Researchers say the biggest driver is a demographic shift: fewer children are being born.
“We have seen a decline in births every year since 2007,” said Sarah Kemp, a researcher with the Applied Population Laboratory at UW-Madison.
Kemp says that impacts how many students enter kindergarten classrooms year after year. She also points to an aging population and limited housing as major factors.
“The aging population is a factor because many people are aging in place and there is not that opportunity for young families to move into those homes,” Kemp said.
Green Bay school leaders also say they are seeing fewer immigrant families settling in the area, which has historically boosted enrollment.
“Our district has, over the past maybe four decades, been a home for immigrants, and we are seeing a decline in that,” Bayer said.
At the same time, some private schools are growing. Valley Christian School in Oshkosh says its enrollment has nearly tripled over the past decade.
“Our family is growing for sure, so we are kind of bursting at the seams,” said Tim Divens, the school’s chief financial officer.
State data shows more than 60,000 students now use Wisconsin’s school choice voucher program to attend private schools. Even with that growth, public schools statewide have lost more than 24,000 students since 2020.
And it is not just large districts feeling the shift. Kimberly’s superintendent told NBC 26 enrollment is declining there as well, driven largely by lower birth rates.
District leaders warn that when enrollment falls, funding follows. Without more state support or local referendums, they say more cuts are likely in the next several years.
“Minimally, we’d be looking at about $22 million, maximum upwards to $32 million, and those are cuts that I don’t know how we could do without including closing more schools,” Bayer said.
Leaders say they are adapting, but the forces behind the decline are bigger than any one district: birth rates, housing availability, and whether young families choose to build a life in Northeast Wisconsin.
“I believe that public education is the center of the community, and we help build what the community is going to look like in the future,” Bayer said. “And my fear is that if it continues, that public education is going to be at great risk in our state.”
For decades, schools grew alongside their communities. Now they are shrinking. And when classrooms shrink, it can be one of the first signs that a community itself is changing.
