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Biden ahead of Trump, trails other GOP candidates in Wisconsin, MU poll finds

The poll found Biden trails Republican candidates Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley in hypothetical matchups.
Trump, Biden return to campaign trail after holding competing town hall events
Posted at 3:15 PM, Nov 08, 2023

MILWAUKEE — According to Marquette University Law School's new poll of Wisconsin registered voters, President Joe Biden is the choice of 50% and former President Donald Trump the choice of 48% of registered voters in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup looking to the November 2024 election for president.

The poll also found Biden trails Republican candidates Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley in hypothetical matchups.

According to the MU poll, DeSantis receives 50% to Biden’s 48%, while Haley holds a larger lead, 53% to Biden’s 44%.

The organizers of the poll note these results include initially undecided voters who were then asked to choose one of the candidates.

According to The Associated Press, voters have thrown their support behind abortion rights in races in Ohio, Virginia and elsewhere. And now, Democrats look to springboard off those wins by using the issue to drive turnout and shape next year’s races for the White House, Congress and other elections.

Ohio sent the clearest sign of the issue’s importance more than a year after the U.S. Supreme Court ended the nationwide right to abortion. Voters in the increasingly Republican-leaning state resoundingly approved an amendment to the state constitution on Tuesday to protect access to abortion. Democrats also harnessed the issue in Kentucky, Pennsylvania and Virginia. Republicans struggled to find a message that will resonate with voters, according to the AP.

Read the announcement regarding the MU poll below:

Marquette Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin finds Biden leads Trump by 2 points, trails DeSantis and Haley

Please note: Complete Poll results and methodology information can be found online at law.marquette.edu/poll [u12097671.ct.sendgrid.net]

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin registered voters finds Democratic President Joe Biden is the choice of 50% and former Republican President Donald Trump the choice of 48% of registered voters in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup looking to the November 2024 election for president. But Biden trails Republican candidates Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley in hypothetical matchups. DeSantis receives 50% to Biden’s 48%, while Haley holds a larger lead, 53% to Biden’s 44%. These results include initially undecided voters who were then asked to choose one of the candidates.

Table 1 shows the Biden vs. Trump results by party identification. Biden receives a higher share of Democratic votes than does Trump among Republicans, while independents split evenly. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages.)

Table 1: Vote for Biden or Trump

Among registered voters
Party ID
Vote choice
Donald Trump
Joe Biden
Haven't decided/Neither
Total
48
50
1
Republican
88
10
1
Independent
47
47
4
Democrat
6
94
0
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided?
Question for those initially answering “Haven’t decided”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump?
In the Biden-DeSantis matchup in Table 2, Republicans back DeSantis more strongly than they do Trump, while independents support DeSantis over Biden. Democratic support for Biden is little changed.

Table 2: Vote for Biden or DeSantis

Among registered voters
Party ID
Vote choice
Ron DeSantis
Joe Biden
Haven't decided
Total
50
48
1
Republican
91
7
2
Independent
58
37
5
Democrat
5
94
0
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Ron DeSantis or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided?
Question for those initially answering “Haven’t decided”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for DeSantis?
Haley runs especially well against Biden in this survey, as shown in Table 3, winning a larger share of Republicans than DeSantis or Trump and matching DeSantis’ share of independent votes. She also wins 8% of Democratic voters, a larger share than does DeSantis or Trump.

Table 3: Vote for Biden or Haley

Among registered voters
Party ID
Vote choice
Nikki Haley
Joe Biden
Haven't decided
Total
53
44
3
Republican
94
4
2
Independent
58
31
11
Democrat
8
90
1
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Nikki Haley or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided?
Question for those initially answering “Haven’t decided”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Haley?
This Marquette Law School Poll was conducted from Oct. 26 through Nov. 2, 2023, interviewing 908 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.5 percentage points. The sample includes 402 Republicans and independents who lean Republican who were asked about their preferences in the Republican presidential primary, with a margin of error of +/-6.8 percentage points.

Favorability

Haley’s strong showing comes despite her being the least well-known of the four candidates included in this poll. Among all registered voters, all four candidates—Biden, Trump, DeSantis, and Haley—are seen more unfavorably than favorably. Table 4 shows favorability to each. Trump has the highest net unfavorable opinion (favorable views minus unfavorable views), followed by Biden, DeSantis, and Haley, who is only slightly net negative. Haley has the highest percentage who say they haven’t heard enough about her or don’t know how they feel about her.

Table 4: Favorability to Biden, Trump, DeSantis, and Haley

Among registered voters
Candidate
Favorability
Net favorable
Favorable
Unfavorable
Haven't heard enough
Don't know
Joe Biden
-14
42
56
2
0
Donald Trump
-24
37
61
2
0
Ron DeSantis
-12
37
49
13
0
Nikki Haley
-3
31
34
33
2
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (INSERT NAME) or haven't you heard enough about them yet?
A significant share of respondents view both Biden and Trump unfavorably, 18%, while a smaller 12% view both Biden and DeSantis unfavorably, as do 12% for Biden and Haley.

A deeper look at votes

 

Biden vs. Trump, by 2020 vote

Voters were asked to recall whom they voted for in 2020, if they voted that year. For a rematch of Biden and Trump, there is strong stability of vote choice, with only 3% of Trump voters switching to Biden, 4% of Biden voters switching to Trump, and a handful who said they were undecided or who declined to answer, as shown in Table 5.

Table 5: Vote for Biden or Trump, by 2020 vote

Among registered voters who voted in 2020
2020 Vote
Vote choice in 2024
Donald Trump
Joe Biden
Haven't decided/Neither
Refused
Donald Trump
95
3
0
1
Joe Biden
4
94
2
1
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided?
Question for those initially answering “Haven’t decided”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump?
Question: Which presidential candidate did you vote for in 2020?
Comparing 2020 vote to the Biden vs. DeSantis matchup in Table 6 suggests that DeSantis holds a higher percentage of Trump voters than does Trump himself, while also winning over 9% of Biden 2020 voters.

Table 6: Vote for Biden or DeSantis, by 2020 vote

Among registered voters who voted in 2020
2020 Vote
Vote choice in 2024
Ron DeSantis
Joe Biden
Haven't decided
Refused
Donald Trump
97
3
0
0
Joe Biden
9
89
2
0
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Ron DeSantis or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided?
Question for those initially answering “Haven’t decided”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for DeSantis?
Question: Which presidential candidate did you vote for in 2020?
Haley does especially well by winning over 15% of 2020 Biden voters and holding 96% of Trump 2020 voters, as shown in Table 7.

Table 7: Vote for Biden or Haley, by 2020 vote

Among registered voters who voted in 2020
2020 Vote
Vote choice in 2024
Nikki Haley
Joe Biden
Haven't decided
Refused
Donald Trump
96
3
1
0
Joe Biden
15
81
4
1
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Nikki Haley or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided?
Question for those initially answering “Haven’t decided”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Haley?
Question: Which presidential candidate did you vote for in 2020?

Choice if “had to choose” among initially undecided voters

When initially asked their vote choice between Biden and Trump, 45% picked Biden and 42% chose Trump, while 12% said they were undecided. Table 8 shows the choices of the initially undecided voters when pushed to choose between Biden and Trump. These voters split very evenly between Biden and Trump.

Table 8: Vote if “had to choose,” among those initially undecided between Biden and Trump

Among registered voters who are undecided between Biden and Trump
Biden v Trump
If had to choose
Definitely Trump
Probably Trump
Probably Biden
Definitely Biden
Don't know
Refused
Undecided Biden or Trump
6
40
39
6
7
3
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump?
When initially asked their vote choice between Biden and DeSantis, 43% picked Biden and 42% chose DeSantis, while 15% said they were undecided. Table 9 shows the choices of these initially undecided voters when pushed to choose between Biden and DeSantis. These voters favor DeSantis over Biden, though few are “definite” in their preferences.

Table 9: Vote if “had to choose,” among those undecided between Biden and DeSantis

Among registered voters who are undecided between Biden and DeSantis
Biden v DeSantis
If had to choose
Definitely DeSantis
Probably DeSantis
Probably Biden
Definitely Biden
Don't know
Refused
Undecided Biden or Trump
7
49
34
0
9
0
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for DeSantis?
When initially asked their vote choice between Biden and Haley, 36% picked Biden and 41% chose Haley, while 22% said they were undecided. Table 10 shows the choices of these initially undecided voters when pushed to choose between Biden and Haley. Haley picks up a majority of these undecided voters, with some remaining undecided.

Table 10: Vote if “had to choose,” among those undecided between Biden and Haley

Among registered voters who are undecided between Biden and Haley
Biden v Haley
If had to choose
Definitely Haley
Probably Haley
Probably Biden
Definitely Biden
Don't know
Refused
Undecided Biden or Trump
8
45
35
0
11
1
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Haley?
Biden job approval and voteBiden’s job approval stands at 42% with disapproval at 57%. In June, 45% approved and 53% disapproved.

Table 11 shows vote choice between Biden and Trump by Biden job approval. Biden wins very large majorities of those who approve either strongly or somewhat of how he is doing his job, but he also wins a majority of those who somewhat disapprove of his handling of his job. This provides him a boost against Trump. Trump wins more than 90% of the strongly disapprove group, as does each of the other Republican candidates.

Table 11: Biden vs. Trump vote, by Biden job approval

Among registered voters
Biden job approval
Vote
Donald Trump
Joe Biden
Haven't decided/Neither
Total
48
50
1
Strongly approve
0
100
0
Somewhat approve
4
94
1
Somewhat disapprove
38
57
3
Strongly disapprove
93
5
1
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided?
Question for those initially answering “Haven’t decided”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump?
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?
Table 12 shows vote choice between Biden and DeSantis by Biden job approval. Biden continues to win big majorities from both categories of approval, but he holds a smaller majority among somewhat disapproving voters than he would win against Trump.

Table 12: Biden vs. DeSantis vote, by Biden job approval

Among registered voters
Biden job approval
Vote
Ron DeSantis
Joe Biden
Haven't decided
Total
50
48
1
Strongly approve
0
98
2
Somewhat approve
10
87
3
Somewhat disapprove
48
52
1
Strongly disapprove
94
5
1
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Ron DeSantis or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided?
Question for those initially answering “Haven’t decided”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for DeSantis?
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?
Table 13 shows vote choice between Biden and Haley by Biden job approval. Haley draws more voters from among Biden’s “somewhat approve” category and takes a substantial majority from the “somewhat disapprove” category—the only Republican candidate to do so.

Table 13: Biden vs. Haley vote, by Biden job approval

Among registered voters
Biden job approval
Vote
Nikki Haley
Joe Biden
Haven't decided
Total
53
44
3
Strongly approve
0
97
3
Somewhat approve
20
75
3
Somewhat disapprove
54
41
5
Strongly disapprove
93
6
2
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Nikki Haley or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided?
Question for those initially answering “Haven’t decided”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Haley?
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?
Possible 3rd party candidatesThe possibility of independent candidacies by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and by Cornel West has raised questions about their potential electoral strength and which of the major party candidates might lose more support to an independent candidate.

As the tables below show, Kennedy is much better liked by Republicans than by Democrats, and Republicans are much more likely to say they would definitely or probably vote for him if he were on the ballot in November. In contrast, a large proportion of Democrats say they would definitely not vote for Kennedy. Substantial proportions of independents and those undecided between the major party candidates say they might vote for Kennedy.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. favorability and vote support

Kennedy is viewed favorably by 31%, and unfavorably by 39%, while 30% say they haven’t heard enough about him to have an opinion. Table 14 shows favorability to Kennedy by party identification. Kennedy is viewed much more favorably among Republicans than among Democrats, with independents less favorable than Republicans and considerably more likely to say they haven’t heard enough about Kennedy.

Table 14: Kennedy favorability, by party identification

Among registered voters
Party ID
Favorability
Favorable
Unfavorable
Haven't heard enough
Don't know
Total
31
39
30
1
Republican
48
21
29
2
Independent
34
26
40
0
Democrat
11
61
27
1
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Robert F. Kennedy Jr or haven't you heard enough about them yet?
If Kennedy were to be included on the November ballot, 5% say they would definitely vote for him, 23% would probably vote for him, 29% would probably not vote for him, and 39% would definitely not vote for him. Table 15 shows potential support for Kennedy by party identification. Less than 10% of any partisan group say they would definitely vote for Kennedy, but 30% of Republicans and 36% of independents say they would probably vote for him. Only 4% of Democrats would definitely support Kennedy and 13% would probably support him.

Table 15: Consider voting for Kennedy, by party identification

Among registered voters
Party ID
Vote for Kennedy
Definitely vote for Kennedy
Probably vote for Kennedy
Probably not vote for Kennedy
Definitely not vote for Kennedy
Don't know
Total
5
23
29
39
3
Republican
6
30
37
25
3
Independent
8
36
26
22
6
Democrat
4
13
23
60
1
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is on the presidential ballot as an independent candidate, how likely would you be to vote for him instead of the Democratic or Republican candidates?
Table 16 shows potential vote for Kennedy by initial vote between Biden and Trump (with initial “Haven’t decided voters” listed separately in this table). Kennedy draws more “definite” and “probably” support from Trump voters than from Biden voters, while those undecided show a higher inclination to consider Kennedy. Few, however, are definite in their support for Kennedy.

Table 16: Consider voting for Kennedy, by initial Biden-Trump choice

Among registered voters
Initial Biden-Trump vote
Vote for Kennedy
Definitely vote for Kennedy
Probably vote for Kennedy
Probably not vote for Kennedy
Definitely not vote for Kennedy
Don't know
Total
5
23
29
39
3
Donald Trump
6
29
38
24
3
Joe Biden
3
14
21
60
2
Haven't decided
11
33
33
20
3
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is on the presidential ballot as an independent candidate, how likely would you be to vote for him instead of the Democratic or Republican candidates?
Table 17 shows Kennedy support by Biden vs. DeSantis initial vote choice. The results are similar to those for the Biden vs. Trump table above, with Kennedy appearing more attractive to DeSantis voters than to Biden voters, while most attractive to those who are initially undecided between Biden and DeSantis.

Table 17: Consider voting for Kennedy, by initial Biden-DeSantis choice

Among registered voters
Biden-DeSantis vote
Vote for Kennedy
Definitely vote for Kennedy
Probably vote for Kennedy
Probably not vote for Kennedy
Definitely not vote for Kennedy
Don't know
Total
5
23
29
39
3
Ron DeSantis
5
29
36
27
2
Joe Biden
4
11
22
62
1
Haven't decided
11
43
30
10
7
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is on the presidential ballot as an independent candidate, how likely would you be to vote for him instead of the Democratic or Republican candidates?
Possible support for Kennedy by initial choice between Biden and Haley is shown in Table 18. The results are also similar to those for DeSantis and Trump, with Haley voters more likely to consider Kennedy than are Biden voters.

Table 18: Consider voting for Kennedy, by initial Biden-Haley choice

Among registered voters
Biden-Haley vote
Vote for Kennedy
Definitely vote for Kennedy
Probably vote for Kennedy
Probably not vote for Kennedy
Definitely not vote for Kennedy
Don't know
Total
5
23
29
39
3
Nikki Haley
6
29
33
29
2
Joe Biden
2
9
24
64
1
Haven't decided
8
36
31
20
5
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is on the presidential ballot as an independent candidate, how likely would you be to vote for him instead of the Democratic or Republican candidates?

Cornel West favorability

West is less well known than Kennedy, with 69% saying they haven’t heard enough about West to have an opinion. There is very little variation in favorability to West across party identification categories, as shown in Table 19.

Table 19: West favorability, by party identification

Among registered voters
Party ID
Favorability
Favorable
Unfavorable
Haven't heard enough
Don't know
Total
6
20
69
5
Republican
6
21
68
6
Independent
8
14
71
7
Democrat
6
21
69
4
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Cornel West, or haven't you heard enough about them yet?


Perceptions of Biden and TrumpTable 20 shows whether Biden or Trump is thought to do a better job on six issues. Trump is seen as better on immigration and border security, the economy, and, to a smaller degree, foreign relations. Biden is seen as slightly better on Medicare and Social Security, with a larger advantage on abortion policy and especially on climate change.

A substantial percentage say both candidates would be about the same or that neither would be good on each issue. These voters could change their minds over the course of the campaign, providing an opportunity for change in these perceptions.

Table 20: Which candidate would do a better job on issues

Among registered voters
Issue
Who better
Biden
Trump
Both about the same
Neither good
Don't know
Immigration and border security
30
50
7
13
0
The economy
33
50
8
9
0
Foreign relations
39
44
5
12
0
Medicare and Social Security
41
37
12
10
1
Abortion policy
43
34
9
14
0
Climate change
45
28
10
16
1
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: Do you think Joe Biden or Donald Trump would do a better job handling each of the following issues, they are both about the same or would neither be good on the issue?
Table 21 shows opinions on how well various phrases describe Biden and Trump. Biden particularly is seen as “too old to be president” compared to those who see Trump as too old. The column “Net describes” is the percent saying this describes the candidate very or somewhat well, minus the percent saying it does so not too well or not at all well. On age, a net 55% say this describes Biden, while a net 9% say this describes Trump.

On “shares your values,” slightly more say this describes Trump very well than Biden, but more are emphatic that this does not describe Trump for them than is the case for Biden. The net figure shows a small advantage to Biden over Trump, though more say each candidate does not share their values.

Corruption charges have been leveled against both candidates, but more people think “has behaved corruptly” does not describe Biden than think it does, while the “net” for Trump is +35, showing 35% more think this describes him than think this does not describe Trump.

On their records of accomplishment as president, Trump has a net of 0, showing equal numbers of people think “a strong record of accomplishment” describes him and think this does not describe him. For Biden, the net score is -17, showing more people don’t see a record of accomplishment by Biden than think he does have such a record.

Table 21: How well does this phrase describe Biden or Trump

Among registered voters
Issue
How well phrase describes
Net describes
Very well
Somewhat well
Not too well
Not at all well
Is too old to be president
Biden
55
55
22
11
11
Trump
9
25
29
24
21
Shares your values
Biden
-8
18
28
15
39
Trump
-16
22
20
11
47
Has behaved corruptly
Biden
-5
31
16
16
36
Trump
35
50
17
12
20
Strong record of accomplishments as president
Biden
-17
20
21
18
40
Trump
0
33
17
15
35
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: How well does each of the following phrases describe (Joe Biden)(Donald Trump)?
“Net describes” column is ‘very well’ plus ‘somewhat well’ minus ‘not too well’ minus ‘not at all well’
Republican primaryTrump leads DeSantis in the GOP primary, with Haley in third place. Since June, Trump and Haley have gained support while DeSantis has declined substantially. Former Vice President Mike Pence suspended his campaign while the survey was being conducted. No candidate other than Trump, DeSantis, and Haley receives more than 3% support. Table 22 shows the full set of GOP primary preferences.

Table 22: Republican primary vote choice

Among Republican registered voters
Primary choice
Survey wave
10/26-11/2/23
6/8-13/23
Donald Trump
38
31
Ron DeSantis
18
30
Nikki Haley
11
3
Vivek Ramaswamy
3
3
Mike Pence
3
6
Chris Christie
1
1
Tim Scott
1
5
Doug Burgum
1
0
Asa Hutchinson
0
0
Larry Elder
0
0
Haven't decided
24
21
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: Here are some candidates for the Republican presidential nomination. If the primary were today, whom would you vote for or haven’t you decided?
Note: Mike Pence suspended his campaign while the survey was being conducted.


Favorability of Trump, DeSantis, and Haley among Republican registered voters

Table 23 shows favorability to the three leading Republican candidates among Republican registered voters. All three candidates are viewed more favorably than unfavorably among Republican voters, though it is notable that DeSantis and especially Haley are still not universally known.

Table 23: Favorability to Trump, DeSantis and Haley among Republicans

Among Republican registered voters
Candidate
Favorability
Favorable
Unfavorable
Haven't heard enough
Don't know
Donald Trump
69
28
3
0
Ron DeSantis
73
15
11
1
Nikki Haley
54
18
27
2
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (INSERT NAME) or haven't you heard enough about them yet?
Wisconsin topics

Right direction or wrong track

A majority of registered voters (62%) say the state is on the wrong track, while 36% say it is headed in the right direction. A slight majority of Democrats see the state headed in the right direction, while large majorities of independents and Republicans say the state is on the wrong track, as shown in Table 24.

Table 24: Right direction or wrong track by party identification

Among registered voters
Party ID
Direction of the state
Right direction
Wrong track
Total
36
62
Republican
19
79
Independent
31
69
Democrat
54
43
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: Thinking just about the state of Wisconsin, do you feel things in Wisconsin are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track?

Approval of governor, legislature, and state Supreme Court

Table 25 shows the approval ratings for Gov. Tony Evers, the Wisconsin legislature, and the Wisconsin Supreme Court. Evers’ approval is 53% and disapproval is 46%. In June, Evers’ approval was 57% and disapproval was 39%. The legislature and state Supreme Court were not measured in June.

Table 25: Approval of governor, the legislature, and state Supreme Court

Among registered voters
Approval of:
Approval
Approve
Disapprove
Don't know
Tony Evers
53
46
2
The Wisconsin legislature
40
57
3
The Wisconsin state Supreme Court
51
43
5
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Tony Evers is handling his job as Governor of Wisconsin?
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the Wisconsin legislature is handling its job?
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the Wisconsin state Supreme Court is handling its job?

Favorability of state elected officials

Favorability ratings of Sen. Tammy Baldwin and Sen. Ron Johnson, Evers, and State Assembly Speaker Robin Vos are shown in Table 26. Vos is far less known statewide than are the others.

Table 26: Favorability to state elected officials

Among registered voters
Elected official
Favorability
Favorable
Unfavorable
Haven't heard enough
Don't know
Tammy Baldwin
41
43
15
1
Ron Johnson
40
50
10
1
Tony Evers
50
42
7
1
Robin Vos
16
36
46
2
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (INSERT NAME) or haven't you heard enough about them yet?

Supreme Court elections, redistricting and impeachment

Wisconsin Supreme Court election races have become much more partisan and competitive in recent years. A large majority of registered voters, 87%, say they prefer a system with elected state Supreme Court justices, while 12% would prefer to have appointed Supreme Court justices. Table 27 shows preference for election or appointment by party identification. There are small party differences, with large majorities favoring elected justices in each partisan group.

Table 27: Prefer elected or appointed state Supreme Court justices

Among registered voters
Party ID
Preference
Better to have justices be elected
Better to have justices be appointed
Don't know
Total
87
12
1
Republican
84
14
2
Independent
89
10
0
Democrat
90
10
0
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: Some states appoint state Supreme Court justices, and other states elect them. Do you think it is better to have state Supreme Court justices appointed or to have justices elected?


A similar majority of respondents, 80%, say that judicial candidates should talk about issues so voters know where they stand, while 19% say candidates should avoid talking about issues to avoid seeming to prejudge issues that might come before them. These results are shown by party in Table 28

Table 28: Should judicial candidates talk about issues during campaigns

Among registered voters
Party ID
Preference
Discuss issues
Avoid discussing issues
Total
80
19
Republican
71
29
Independent
80
19
Democrat
90
10
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: Should judicial candidates discuss during campaigns issues likely to come before them if elected so voters know what the candidates stand for, or should they avoid talking about such issues in order not to seem to be pre-judging the issues?
A case currently before the state Supreme Court could result in redrawing state legislative districts before the 2024 elections. A slight majority, 51%, say the current maps should remain in place until the next scheduled redistricting in 2031, while 45% want the maps redrawn now, and 4% say they don’t know. Opinion on this issue divides strongly along partisan lines, as shown in Table 29.

Table 29: Opinion on redistricting legislature now or in 2031

Among registered voters
Party ID
Preference
Redraw district maps
Keep maps in place
Don't know
Total
45
51
4
Republican
19
76
4
Independent
42
55
3
Democrat
73
23
4
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: A case currently before the state Supreme Court could require maps of the legislative districts for the state Senate and Assembly to be redrawn for upcoming elections. Do you favor redrawing the district maps or should the maps created prior to the 2022 elections remain in place until the next scheduled redistricting in 2031?
Earlier in the fall Republican legislators discussed the possibility of impeaching newly elected state Supreme Court Justice Janet Protasiewicz, though they have not moved forward with such an action. Among registered voters, 31% have heard a lot about a possible impeachment, 39% have heard a little, and 29% have heard nothing at all about this. Table 30 shows this by party, with Democrats more than twice as likely as Republicans to have heard a lot about a possible impeachment.

Table 30: How much have you heard about possible impeachment of Justice Protasiewicz

Among registered voters
Party ID
Amount heard or read
A lot
A little
Nothing at all
Don't know
Total
31
39
29
1
Republican
20
44
34
1
Independent
20
45
35
0
Democrat
46
32
23
0
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: How much have you heard or read about calls by some Republican legislators to consider impeaching state Supreme Court Justice Janet Protasiewicz?

Aid to Ukraine and Israel and U.S. role in the world

In Wisconsin, 62% think it is better for the country if the U.S. plays an active role in world affairs, while 36% say it would be better to stay out of world affairs. Table 31 shows how these views differ by party identification. Independents are most likely to say the U.S. should stay out of world affairs. A small majority of Republicans say the U.S. should play an active part in the world, while 75% of Democrats favor an active role in the world.

Table 31: Better for U.S. to play active role in world or to stay out of world affairs

Among registered voters
Party ID
Role in world
Take an active part in world affairs
Stay out of world affairs
Don't know
Total
62
36
1
Republican
53
46
1
Independent
47
49
1
Democrat
75
23
2
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: Do you think it will be better for the future of the country if we take an active part in world affairs, or if we stay out of world affairs?
Twenty-eight percent says the U.S. is providing too much support to Israel in its war with Hamas in Gaza, while 23% say the U.S. is not giving enough support for Israel and 46% say about the right amount of support is being given to Israel. Table 32 shows how views of aid to Israel vary by party. Democrats are more likely to say the U.S. is giving too much support to Israel than are Republicans.

Table 32: Amount of U.S. support to Israel, by party identification

Among registered voters
Party ID
Support to Israel
Too much support
Not enough support
About the right amount of support
Don't know
Total
28
23
46
3
Republican
18
32
45
4
Independent
29
28
39
4
Democrat
37
12
50
1
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: When it comes to Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza, do you think the United States is providing too much support to Israel, not enough support to Israel, or about the right amount of support to Israel?
Asked about support for aid to Ukraine, 36% say the U.S. is giving too much support to Ukraine, 22% say not enough support is being given, and 41% say the amount of support is about right. Party differences on aid to Ukraine are the reverse of those for aid to Israel, with Republicans most likely to say too much support is being given to Ukraine and Democrats least likely to say this, as shown in Table 33.

Table 33: Amount of U.S. support to Ukraine, by party identification

Among registered voters
Party ID
Support to Ukraine
Too much support
Not enough support
About the right amount of support
Don't know
Total
36
22
41
1
Republican
55
13
29
2
Independent
43
20
36
1
Democrat
12
31
55
1
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: When it comes to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, do you think the United States is providing too much support to Ukraine, not enough support to Ukraine, or about the right amount of support to Ukraine?
Views of the economy and personal financial situationThe national economy is seen as excellent by only 3%, as good by 24%, as not so good by 36%, and as poor by 37%. These views of the economy differ sharply by party identification, as shown in Table 34.

Table 34: Views of the national economy, by party identification

Among registered voters
Party ID
Description of national economy
Excellent
Good
Not so good
Poor
Total
3
24
36
37
Republican
0
4
34
61
Independent
0
19
38
43
Democrat
7
47
37
9
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: How would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days?
Among registered voters, 48% say they are living comfortably, while 36% say they are just getting by and 15% say they are struggling. Partisan differences in personal financial situation are shown in Table 35.
Table 35: Family financial situation, by party identification

Among registered voters
Party ID
Family financial situation
Living comfortably
Just getting by
Struggling
Total
48
36
15
Republican
42
41
17
Independent
29
40
31
Democrat
60
31
9
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: Thinking about your family's financial situation, would you say you are living comfortably, just getting by, or struggling to make ends meet?


Abortion opinion

A majority, 57%, oppose the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in 2022 that overturned Roe v. Wade, while 35% favor that decision. Table 36 shows opinion by party, with a majority of Republicans in favor of overturning Roe while majorities of independents and Democrats are opposed.

Table 36: Favor or oppose overturning Roe v. Wade, by party identification

Among registered voters
Party ID
Overturning Roe v. Wade
Favor
Oppose
Haven't heard of decision
Total
35
57
6
Republican
66
26
5
Independent
27
60
10
Democrat
5
89
6
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: Do you favor or oppose the recent U.S. Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe versus Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states?
Abortion remains one of the most important issues among Democrats, though less so among Republicans and independents, as shown in Table 37.

Table 37: Importance of the abortion issue by party identification

Among registered voters
Party ID
Importance of abortion issue
One of the most important issues
Somewhat important
Not very important
Not at all important
Total
38
42
13
6
Republican
28
42
19
11
Independent
19
59
18
4
Democrat
55
37
6
1
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: How important is the abortion issue to you--would you say it is one of the most important, somewhat important, not very important, or not important at all?
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