President Donald Trump will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska amid efforts to end the war in Ukraine.
Trump only wrote “HIGH STAKES!!!” on Truth Social before departing the White House early Friday morning alongside his top advisers, including the director of the CIA and secretaries of state, treasury and commerce.
“This is a war that wouldn’t have happened under President Trump, and it is one that is well past time that should end. The world has recognized that only President Trump possesses the leadership and diplomatic respect to find resolution to this conflict, and he will arrive ready to assess the possibilities for peace,” a White House official stated.
Ahead of the high stakes meeting, Trump said he believes Putin “would like to see a deal” and that Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy “will make peace,’ suggesting it could lead to a trilateral meeting including both, but warned of severe consequences if Russia does not stop the fighting.
“We're going to find out where everybody stands. And I'll know within the first two minutes, three minutes, four minutes, or five minutes, like we tend to find out whether or not we're gonna have a good meeting or a bad meeting. And if it's a bad meaning, it'll end very quickly. And if it’s a good meeting, we're going to end up getting peace in the pretty near future,” Trump said.
Trump appeared to tamp down expectations, though, for an immediate ceasefire, suggesting a second meeting including Putin and Zelenskyy could be more important and productive.
“I don’t know that we’re going to get an immediate ceasefire, but I think it’s going to come. See, I’m more interested in an immediate peace deal, getting peace fast. And depending on what happens with my meeting, I’m going to be calling up President Zelenskyy and let’s get him over to wherever we’re going to meet,” Trump told Brian Kilmeade in an interview on Fox News Radio.
The White House has described the meetings as a "listening exercise," as President Trump has sought to broker a ceasefire and peace deal.
Part of the goal of the meeting is to assess where Putin is and determine next steps, according to a senior administration official, who noted they hope the meeting is a positive step towards ending the war.
The engagement came together after a meeting between Putin and special envoy Steve Witkoff last week ahead of President Trump’s deadline for Putin to reach a deal or face tougher economic sanctions, in which the White House said Putin asked to meet with Trump.
“Trump wants to end the killing. He's giving diplomacy a final chance, and I think he's very serious about implementing very tough sanctions, starting with energy sanctions, then moving to economic sanctions, banking sanctions, seizing Russian assets. If Russia doesn't stop the war, it's not something Trump's going to tolerate,” said Fred Fleitz, vice chair of AFPI’s Center for American Security and a deputy assistant to President Trump and chief of staff of the National Security Council during his first term.
While Russia has yet to secure a ceasefire, a stop to the fighting would be a historical moment as fighting has continued nearly 3 1/2 years since Russia launched its full scale invasion into Ukraine.
“I think this is very consistent with how President Trump likes to do business, which is going eye to eye with the individual who is the obstacle to pursuing US interests,” said Alex Gray, who served as National Security Council chief of staff during Trump’s first term. “He’s gonna judge Putin on one criteria and that is how is Putin willing or able to do what President Trump views to be in the US national interest,” noting ceasefire and framework going forward.
----------------
The administration has suggested concessions would be necessary for peace.
“To achieve a peace, I think we all recognize that there'll have to be some conversation about security guarantees. There'll have some before conversations about, you know, territorial disputes and claims and what they're fighting over. All these things will be part of a comprehensive thing, but I think the president's hope is to achieve some stoppage of fighting so that those conversations can happen,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Thursday.
President Trump has suggested "land swapping" could be a part of a deal.
“The answer to the Ukrainian territorial question already is in the Constitution of Ukraine. No one will deviate from this – and no one will be able to. Ukrainians will not gift their land to the occupier,” Zelenskyy said Saturday.
Ukraine and European allies have had a flurry of diplomatic engagements, including with the U.S., since President Trump announced his intent to meet with Putin.
Zelenskyy said Ukraine and European leaders agreed on the need for Ukraine involvement, a ceasefire, security guarantees, that Russia can’t have veto authority over Ukraine’s European and NATO prospects and that peace talks should be combined with pressure on Russia.
Ahead of the meeting, Zelenskyy and European counterparts pressed their views with President Trump in a virtual meeting Wednesday. Zelenskyy said he told Trump that Putin is “bluffing” and that the Russian leader does not intend for peace but to occupy Ukraine.
“He is trying to exert pressure ahead of the meeting in Alaska on all sectors of the Ukrainian front. Russia is attempting to portray itself as capable of occupying all of Ukraine. That is undoubtedly what they want,” Zelenskyy said.
Trump’s intention is to achieve a ceasefire and seek a trilateral meeting, according to French President Emmanuel Macron, who said that “currently, there are no serious territorial exchange schemes on the table” and that they can’t be discussed without Ukraine.
"Ukraine is ready to negotiate on territorial issues. However, the so-called contact line must be the starting point, and legal recognition of Russian occupation is not up for debate. The principle that borders must not be changed by force must continue to apply,” said German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
European allies are concerned by the meeting though taking place without them at the table, according to former officials and analysts.
“They understand that they can't piss Trump off. He's part of the solution, and like the NATO secretary general, they're not going to call him daddy, but they're not going to piss all over him,” said Jim Townsend, a senior fellow with the CNAS transatlantic security program and former deputy assistant secretary of defense for Europe and NATO under the Obama administration.
“But privately, certainly hearing from their staff, they've been appalled, particularly at Witkoff and what happened last week. So the European feeling is they're holding their breath, and they're trying to play every card they've got to show that they count, to show that they can have an important role to play and to show them that they he cannot just ignore or take for granted the allies. They've got to be part of this,” he added.
But the president has often touted his willingness to meet with adversarial leaders and his ability to be a "peacemaker."
“We hear many people in the mainstream media and European diplomats saying that there's something wrong with Trump meeting Putin, that Trump is rewarding Putin for his aggression, and that's just dead wrong. It's good for American and Russian presidents to meet. They should be talking and meeting frequently, because that lowers global tensions. You can't get peace without dialogue. Agreeing to meet with the President of Russia is not a concession. It is good statesmanship,” said Fleitz.
The expectations of a deal out of the meeting have been tempered, though.
The administration is realizing it "won’t be a breakthrough event," according to another former US official.
President Trump has said he would not make a deal, and intended to call Zelenskyy and European leaders after the meeting, rejecting the notion meeting with Putin served as a reward for Russia.
“President Trump has talked several times now, and he's brought this subject up, and it's pretty clear that he is going into this, maybe not eyes totally wide open, but he's going into this with a view to it's gotta be the right deal, or maybe I don't take it, and that's the most important thing,” said retired Gen. Philip Breedlove, the former NATO supreme allied commander.
“I think Putin’s hopes to get America on board to terms to peace, that put all or nearly all of the requirements on Ukraine ,will fail,” said former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, who is also the senior director of the Eurasia Center at the Atlantic Council. “What I don’t know is if Trump will come out of this understanding in fact Russia is not being helpful. I don’t know if Trump will come out of this not thinking that somehow he still needs to move Zelenskyy to make him more responsive for peace.”
While President Trump has expressed optimism about the meeting, he has also warned of severe consequences if Russia does not end the fighting.
Trump first hinted at tougher economic measures in March, and this summer gave Putin a 10-day deadline to reach a deal or face actions like secondary sanctions before the meeting was set. He had already increased tariffs against India over its purchase of Russian oil, but stopped short of taking the same measure against China, the world’s largest consumer of it.
“Sanctions are very powerful and economic incentives are very powerful, both,” Trump told Fox News Radio’s Brian Kilmeade.
Experts believe Trump could be willing to enact more pressure if Putin doesn’t stop fighting.
If additional sanctions are added, it could contract Russian revenue and reinforce Ukraine’s position, according to a June report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, which also found a partial removal of sanctions would provide ‘additional resources for its war event.’
“They're trying to use their mass advantage, use their manpower advantage on Ukrainians to slowly grind down the Ukrainian lines and hopefully get a major breakthrough that they can then, you know, consolidate in terms of further territorial gains, kind of impose a peace on the Ukrainians on the west,” said Nick Fenton, an associate fellow with CSIS and an author on the report.
Meanwhile, Putin called U.S. efforts to end the war “energetic” and “sincere.”
“Energetic and sincere efforts to stop the hostilities, stop the crisis and reach agreements that are of interest to all parties involved in this conflict in order to create long-term conditions of peace between our countries, and in Europe, and in the world as a whole if we reach agreements in the area of control over strategic offensive weapons at the next stage,” Putin said.
Arms control is a priority for President Trump according to a White House official, but “any topics discussed in the meeting will be shared at the President’s discretion.”
The Russians hope dialogue includes the economy and trade.
“We see that joint investments, including with investors from the United States, projects in the Arctic, rare earth metals, infrastructure projects, this can be mutually beneficial for both Russia and the United States. And we see that we can also develop joint investments in technology companies and many others,” Krill Dmitriev, Russian presidential envoy for international investment, said last week.
However, analysts also believe Putin is using the meeting as a stalling tactic.
“It is a very good bet to make that Putin is just stringing the U.S. along and taking the opportunity for a visit to Alaska as a part of his own personal PR campaign for domestic audiences,” said Kristine Berzina, a senior fellow with the German Marshall Fund, adding, “This is a tremendously big stage for Putin, and it shows his ongoing legitimacy in the eyes of the world. So showing up in and of itself is a win. It really would get him a lot of credibility and a lot of support from the Russian people.”
While the Russian leader thinks he can have success on the battlefield and outlast western assistance, “On the other hand, the more that Trump gets frustrated with him, the greater the chance he might lose Trump. And he doesn't want to lose Trump, because Trump is useful to him, because he's got bigger things afoot,” said Townsend. ”Putin, does he, at the end of the day, is interested in Ukraine? Yes. But he's also interested in getting NATO done away with US, troops out of Europe, and he's looking for a European security architecture different than it is now.”
Trump said reducing NATO troops in Europe to get Russia to agree to a deal “hasn’t been put before me.”
Some experts say Putin is looking to gain additional territory.
“Putin desperately wants the United States to do what he can't do with his army and give him the rest of the four oblasts along the eastern edge of Ukraine. I worried about that a month ago. I'm less worried about that right now. And so I think that this is going to be a disappointment to Mr. Putin that he's not going to be handed a bunch of stuff,” said retired Gen. Philip Breedlove, the former NATO supreme allied commander. “The other thing that Putin needs is not peace. Putin is not has never been a partner for peace. He does not intend peace now, and he doesn't want peace in the future. Putin wants this to be a ceasefire. He wants it to be a ceasefire because now the world looks at Ukraine and says it is still under threat from Russia. Why would I go invest in Ukraine and lose my investment. Ukraine needs there to be a durable peace, because the world is just waiting to invest in Ukraine.”
Trump has indicated he intends to hold a press conference following the meeting, while the Kremlin has indicated it expects a joint press conference with both leaders.
