A new Marquette Law School poll shows the Wisconsin governor's race is shaping up to be another close contest, with independent voters holding the key to the outcome — and a significant share of them still undecided.
Among likely voters, Democrat David Crowley leads Republican Tom Tiffany 49% to 44%. The race becomes a dead heat at 44% to 44% when expanded to all registered voters.
The number that stands out most is among independents. Crowley leads Tiffany 55% to 16% among likely independent voters, but 30% of that group say they have not yet made up their minds. That undecided share jumps to 47% among registered independent voters.
WATCH: Wisconsin governor's race tightens as independents remain undecided
Marquette Law School Poll Director Charles Franklin said the size of the independent vote makes it a critical factor.
"In terms of size, independents are about 13% of the electorate, a little less when you get to likely voters," Franklin said."Just sheer size doesn't make them pivotal, but the fact that Democrats and Republicans are about equal in size and tend to offset each other's votes. Independents remain an important element for tipping that balance, you know, from two parties, both at 48%, to which one gets over 50%. Independents play a big role there."
With 69 days until Election Day, voters are beginning to see campaign commercials, attend campaign stops and follow social media posts about the governor's race. The question of whether they will also see a debate between the two candidates remains open.
Longtime Milwaukee community leader Ricardo Diaz, a close observer of Wisconsin elections, said debates often reinforce existing opinions rather than change minds.
"I think most people come into the debate already somewhat with their minds made up. They like the person they've heard something about, and they're hoping that the debate reinforces that point of view that they already have," Diaz said.
Betty Speed, attending her first Marquette Law School poll results event, said she sees debates as essential.
"It's very important because then you find out what their views are and also how they react to being in front of a camera," Speed said.
Both candidates have been drawing contrasts with each other on the campaign trail. Crowley has made his opponent a frequent topic at campaign events.
"I don't trust Donald Trump or Tom Tiffany to actually do what they're saying they're going to do," Crowley said.
Tiffany has done the same, targeting Crowley's record in Milwaukee County.
"He is making life more expensive for people in Milwaukee County. Do we want that for Wisconsin?" Tiffany said.
When asked whether he would participate in a debate, including one proposed for Oct. 8, Tiffany stopped short of committing.
"We're working our way through those requests in regards to debates, and you'll certainly be hearing from us in regards to it. People are going to hear the clear difference between myself and David Crowley," Tiffany said.
Crowley, who has already participated in several primary town hall forums and one debate with his former Democratic rivals, also stopped short of a firm commitment.
"Look, I'm willing to have any type of conversation or debate with the congressman to make sure that we're showing the contrast, but also to make sure that we're laying out the policies that are going to help move the state of Wisconsin forward," Crowley said.
TMJ4 has invited both candidates to participate in a gubernatorial debate on Oct. 8 at 6 p.m. The station has partnered with the Intergovernmental Cooperation Council, made up of all local mayors and village presidents in Milwaukee County, to host the event.
This story was reported on-air by Charles Benson and has been converted to this platform with the assistance of AI. Our editorial team verifies all reporting on all platforms for fairness and accuracy.
