WISCONSIN (NBC 26) — Nearly half of Wisconsin Democratic primary voters remain undecided in the race for governor, according to a new Marquette Law School Poll — even as the field has seen rapid changes in recent weeks.
State Rep. Francesca Hong leads the Democratic primary field with 26% support, followed by former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes at 15%. Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, who dropped out of the race after polling was completed, had 11%. Joel Brennan had 2% and State Sen. Kelda Roys had 1%. Forty-five percent of Democratic primary voters are undecided.
Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley dropped out of the race before the poll was conducted and reentered after it was completed, so he is not included in the results.
The exits of Crowley and then Rodriguez, and Crowley's subsequent reentry, have added uncertainty to a race that many voters had not been closely following. In the previous Marquette Law School Poll conducted in March, 65% of Democratic primary voters were undecided.
In the Republican primary, U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany leads with 67% support, with Andy Manske at 2% and 30% undecided.
Among Democratic primary voters who have chosen a candidate, 64% say they are certain about their choice, while 36% say they might change their mind. Hong supporters are the most committed, with 72% saying they are certain to back her.
Two-thirds of Democrats who have chosen a primary candidate — 67% — say having a candidate who can win against the Republican in November is extremely important. Among Hong supporters, 69% say winning in November is extremely important, as do 65% of those supporting Barnes.
Where the candidates stand after Rodriguez's exit
When Rodriguez's supporters' second choices are allocated to the remaining candidates, Hong stands at 27%, Barnes at 18%, Brennan at 5%, and Roys at 2%, with 48% still undecided.
Among Rodriguez supporters, 29% pick Brennan as their second choice, 28% choose Barnes, 12% say Hong, and 4% go to Roys. Twenty-six percent of Rodriguez supporters say they haven't decided on a second choice.
While she was still in the race, Rodriguez had the largest share of second-choice support at 25%, followed by Barnes at 20%, Hong at 9%, Brennan at 6%, and Roys at 4%. Thirty-five percent were undecided on a second choice.
Support breaks along ideological lines
Support for candidates varies sharply by ideology among Democratic primary voters. Among those who describe themselves as "very liberal," 58% support Hong, as do 26% of those who identify as "liberal." Hong has just 8% support among those who say they are "moderate" or "conservative."
Very liberal Democratic primary voters are also the least likely to be undecided, at 24%. Among liberal voters, 39% are undecided, and among moderate and conservative voters, 60% are undecided.
Hong describes herself as a democratic socialist and is a member of the socialist caucus in the Wisconsin legislature.
Among Democratic primary voters who are favorable to Democratic socialists, Hong wins 45% of the primary vote. Among those unfavorable to Democratic socialists, she receives 8% — the same share as among those who say they haven't heard enough to have an opinion.
Hong also draws notably more support from younger primary voters. Among voters ages 18-29, 43% support Hong. That share drops to 37% among voters ages 30-44, 20% among those 45-59, and just 9% among voters 60 and older. Older voters are also more likely to be undecided, with 53% of voters 60 and older still uncommitted.
November matchups point to a close race
Head-to-head polling against Tiffany shows a competitive general election regardless of who wins the Democratic nomination.
Among registered voters, Barnes is the only Democrat still in the race with an edge over Tiffany, leading by 4 percentage points, 44% to 40%. Hong trails Tiffany by 3 points, 40% to 43%. Brennan also trails by 3 points, and Roys trails by 4 points.
Among likely voters — those who say they are certain to vote in November — Barnes leads Tiffany by 5 points. Hong ties Tiffany at 44% each. Brennan trails by 1 point and Roys by 2 points.
Barnes performs better than Hong among independents and within the Democratic Party. Among registered voters, Barnes leads Tiffany by 11 points with independents, while Hong trails Tiffany by 7 points with that group. Barnes wins 91% of Democrats in a matchup with Tiffany, compared to 85% for Hong.
More Democrats say they are certain to vote in November — 84% — compared to 79% of Republicans and 69% of independents.
Voters see both parties as too extreme
Just over half of Wisconsin registered voters say each major party has moved too far ideologically. Fifty-one percent say the Republican Party in Wisconsin is too conservative, and 52% say the Democratic Party in Wisconsin is too liberal.
Fifty-four percent of voters say the Republican Party has become more conservative over the past 10 years, and 54% say the Democratic Party has become more liberal.
Among all registered voters, 72% say it is more important for a governor to be willing to compromise to achieve some goals than to be uncompromising in their principles.
Both major parties carry negative net-favorability ratings. The Republican Party and the MAGA movement each have a net favorability of -19, while the Democratic Party sits at -23.
Economic concerns dominate
Inflation and the cost of living tops the list of most important issues for Wisconsin voters, with 42% naming it their top concern. Illegal immigration and border security ranks second at 13%, followed by health insurance at 9%. Five of the top issues are related to the cost of living, including property taxes, jobs and the economy, and housing affordability.
Seventy-six percent of registered voters say the costs of data centers outweigh the benefits, up from 69% in March.
A small majority of registered voters — 53% — say they would like to see Act 10, the law that limited collective bargaining for public employees in Wisconsin, repealed and collective bargaining restored. Eighty-six percent of Democrats support repeal, while 76% of Republicans want to keep the current law. Among independents, 65% want Act 10 repealed.
Evers approval rises; Trump hits new low
Gov. Tony Evers' job approval rose to 51% in the July poll, up from 47% in March. Evers is seen favorably by 47% of registered voters and unfavorably by 44%.
President Donald Trump's job approval among Wisconsin registered voters stands at 40%, with 58% disapproving. That is a decline from 42% approval in May and marks his lowest approval rating in either his first or second term in the Marquette Law School Poll.
About the poll
The survey was conducted July 8-16, 2026, interviewing 838 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.5 percentage points. The sample size for likely voters is 695, with a margin of error of +/-4.9 percentage points. The sample size for Republican primary voters is 399, with a margin of error of +/-6.5 percentage points. The sample size for Democratic primary voters is 430, with a margin of error of +/-6.1 percentage points.
Complete poll results and methodology are available at law.marquette.edu/poll.
